The Gravity Report
THE 644
1 JOKIĆ 97.8 · 2 GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER 92.9 · 3 WEMBANYAMA 85.7 · 4 ANTETOKOUNMPO 83.9 · 5 DONČIĆ 83.0 · 6 LEONARD 77.3 · 7 CUNNINGHAM 70.3 · 8 TOWNS 69.3 · 9 MITCHELL 68.1 · 10 MAXEY 67.3 · 11 BALL 66.8 · 12 HOLMGREN 66.6 · 13 CURRY 66.5 · 14 DUREN 65.9 · 15 BARNES 65.8
The Forecast Ledger

Every call, on the record before the season

Every forecast is registered before the season with its probability, thresholds, and what counts as being wrong. After the season, every call gets graded in the annual Forecast Audit, wins and misses alike.

32open
0graded
Aprfirst grades, 2027

Open forecasts

In the order they were registered. The bar shows the chance we gave; the black tick marks 50%, a coin flip.

2Neemias Queta finishes top 50 in The 64475%grades 2027-07
2bQueta finishes top 25 in The 64440%grades 2027-07
E1The 30 team ranking calls the standingsSpearman ≥ 0.60 vs final 2026-27 wins75%grades 2027-07
K1Kawhi Leonard stays top 8 in The 64450%grades 2027-07
K3Kawhi finishes top 8 in Box Plus/Minusplayers with 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference30%grades 2027-04
K4Kawhi's usage stays at 30% or moreVoid under 1,000 minutes60%grades 2027-04
K5Kawhi's true shooting falls below .610He shot .629 last season. Void under 1,000 minutes65%grades 2027-04
D1Jalen Duren stays top 15 in The 644#16–20 near miss (graded as a miss)80%grades 2027-07
D3Duren posts the best BPM among traditional centerscenters with a three-point rate under 10%, 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference60%grades 2027-04
J1Nikola Jokić stays #1 in The 644#2 near miss (graded as a miss)55%grades 2027-07
J2Jokić leads the NBA in Box Plus/Minusplayers with 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference60%grades 2027-04
J3Jokić wins the 2026–27 MVP25%grades 2027-06
P1Oklahoma City wins the 2026–27 championship34%grades 2027-06
P21The Finals is Oklahoma City against Detroit6%grades 2027-06
P3MVP: Nikola Jokić25%grades 2027-06
P4Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama70%grades 2027-06
P5Rookie of the Year: Cameron Boozer28%grades 2027-06
P6Breakout of the year: Dylan Harper.BPM 3.0+ in 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference30%grades 2027-04
P7Most Improved Player: Brandon Miller14%grades 2027-06
P8Sixth Man of the Year: Ajay Mitchell.12%grades 2027-06
P22Coach of the Year: Darko Rajaković, Toronto13%grades 2027-06
P23Surprise team: Toronto wins 47 or more games56%grades 2027-04
P24Disappointment team: Atlanta wins 40 or fewer games48%grades 2027-04
P25Milwaukee over 25.5BetMGM line, Oct 1962%grades 2027-04
P26Golden State over 36.5BetMGM line, Oct 1960%grades 2027-04
P27Portland over 41.5BetMGM line, Oct 1960%grades 2027-04
P28San Antonio under 59.5BetMGM line, Oct 1962%grades 2027-04
P29Washington under 34.5.BetMGM line, Oct 1962%grades 2027-04
P30Utah under 37.5BetMGM line, Oct 1961%grades 2027-04
P18Kyrie Irving is traded before the February 11 deadline.NBA transaction log, Feb 11 deadline20%grades 2027-02
P19Jokić averages a triple-double again45%grades 2027-04
P20LeBron James plays 60 or more games for Philadelphia50%grades 2027-04
IDClaim as registeredChanceRegisteredScoresStatus
2Queta top-50 in July 202775%Jul 10, 2026Jul 2027OPEN
2bQueta top-25 in July 202740%Jul 10, 2026Jul 2027OPEN
E1The 30 calls the standings75%Jul 29, 2026Jul 2027OPEN
K1Kawhi top 8 in The 64450%Oct 6, 2026Jul 2027OPEN
K3Kawhi top 8 in BPM30%Oct 6, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
K4Kawhi usage 30% or more60%Oct 6, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
K5Kawhi true shooting < .61065%Oct 6, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
D1Duren top 15 in The 64480%Oct 17, 2026Jul 2027OPEN
D3Duren best BPM among non-shooting centers60%Oct 17, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
J1Jokić #1 in The 64455%Oct 17, 2026Jul 2027OPEN
J2Jokić leads the NBA in BPM60%Oct 17, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
J3Jokić wins MVP25%Oct 17, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P1OKC wins the title34%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P21Finals: OKC vs Detroit6%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P3Jokić wins MVP25%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P4Wembanyama wins DPOY70%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P5Boozer wins Rookie of the Year28%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P6Harper breakout (BPM 3.0+)30%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P7Miller wins Most Improved14%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P8Mitchell wins Sixth Man12%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P22Rajaković wins Coach of the Year13%Oct 20, 2026Jun 2027OPEN
P23Toronto wins 47+56%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P24Atlanta wins 40 or fewer48%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P25Milwaukee over 25.5 wins62%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P26Golden State over 36.5 wins60%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P27Portland over 41.5 wins60%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P28San Antonio under 59.5 wins62%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P29Washington under 34.5 wins62%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P30Utah under 37.5 wins61%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P18Kyrie traded by the deadline20%Oct 20, 2026Feb 2027OPEN
P19Jokić averages a triple-double45%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN
P20LeBron plays 60+ games50%Oct 20, 2026Apr 2027OPEN

How grading works

Every call starts OPEN and becomes WIN, NEAR MISS or MISS when scored. A near miss is a failed prediction that owes a diagnosis, not partial credit. No deletions, no edits, no quiet revisions.

The overall score is the Brier score: for each call, the squared gap between the chance we gave and what happened (1 if it happened, 0 if it didn't), averaged over all calls. Lower is better. Saying 50% on everything would score 0.25.

Amended Jul 11, 2026 — Grading tightened against ourselves, following external review: №2's registered #51–70 band, originally labeled a "push," will be graded a near miss — a failed prediction owing a diagnosis, not partial credit. The claims, probabilities, and thresholds above stand exactly as registered.
Amended Oct 20, 2026 — The 2026–27 Gravity Report Predictions were first registered on September 29 (privately, before publication) with team calls from the July edition of The 30. Before tip-off on October 20 every team call was re-run through TORQUE. Changed: OKC title 25% → 34%. Replaced: Finals OKC–New York 10% → OKC–Detroit 6%; Coach of the Year Sean Sweeney 12% → Darko Rajaković 13%; surprise team Orlando 48+ wins 40% → Toronto 47+ 56%; disappointment team Indiana 40 or fewer 40% → Atlanta 40 or fewer 48%; win totals Orlando over 43.5 (62%), Houston over 47.5 (60%), Denver over 49.5 (58%), Utah under 38.5 (62%), Washington under 35.5 (58%), Indiana under 44.5 (60%) → Milwaukee over 25.5 (62%), Golden State over 36.5 (60%), Portland over 41.5 (60%), San Antonio under 59.5 (62%), Washington under 34.5 (62%), Utah under 37.5 (61%). The replaced calls are void and will not be scored. Award calls and wildcards unchanged.

Scheduled grades

  1. Jul 2027Grading Article №2: when the July 2027 edition of The 644 is computed, one line — where Queta finished, and WIN / NEAR MISS / MISS for forecast №2.
  2. 2027Grading The 30 vs the standings: when the 2026-27 regular season is final, the rank correlation with final wins, and WIN / NEAR MISS / MISS for E1. The July edition it grades is frozen.
  3. 2027Forecast Audit 2027 — an annual report. What the model got right, what it got wrong, and why.