The Gravity Report

The Gravity Report is an independent NBA analytics publication built around GRAVITY, an original player-value model that explains careers, identifies mispriced players, and publishes falsifiable forecasts. No sponsors, no aggregation, no reaction content. Numbered articles, typeset in LaTeX, built on a model whose every equation is public.

The rules this publication runs on

• Notes are permanent. Once an article ships, it stays. Only the model gets revised, and every revision is versioned in public.
• Every forecast is registered. Probability, thresholds, and what counts as being wrong are written down before the season, in the Forecast Ledger, and never edited afterward.
• Everything gets graded. The annual Forecast Audit scores every registered call: win, near miss, or miss. The first audit runs in July 2027.
• Mistakes stay visible. Corrections are published as revision notes on the articles themselves, and errors live permanently in Deleted Items, including the ones that made our numbers worse.
• No opinions borrowed. No external rankings or projections are ever consulted. Reputation is not an input.

The model, briefly

GRAVITY asks two questions about every player: how good is he per minute on the floor, and how much of that can a team actually count on. The two multiply. A per-minute star who misses most of the season lands well below his talent level, on purpose. Every player in the league is graded by the same formula. The weights are specified before anyone is ranked, published in full, and stress-tested in the articles' sensitivity appendices.

THE SCALE
  50   league-average minute
  60+  quality starter
  80+  franchise engine
  97.8 Nikola Jokić (2025-26 max)

The complete mathematics (all seven component constructions, every weight, the shrinkage rules, the full injury-override table) is a standalone citable document: The GRAVITY Specification. (GRAVITY the player-value model is unrelated to the NBA's defensive-attention "gravity" statistic. Different quantity, different purpose.)

Why it looks like 1999

Articles are letters: numbered, dated, permanent, addressed to anyone who takes basketball arguments seriously. An inbox is the honest interface for that: nothing trends, nothing autoplays, the archive is the product. Predictions age in the Outbox. Drafts are voted on by readers. The trash is part of the methodology.

Where to start

• What is GRAVITY? — the two-minute version, pinned at the top of the inbox.
• Deep Dive №4 — The Kawhi Anomaly — the biggest rebound ever recorded by a 34-year-old, and which half of it will last.
• Deep Dive №2 — The Queta Problem — the live bet: 75% that Neemias Queta finishes 2026–27 a top-50 player, graded next July.
• Deep Dive №1 — The Rise and Fall of Ja Morant — seven seasons measured with one instrument.
• The 644 — every NBA player plus the 2026 draft class, one number each. Editions are permanent; the next arrives at the All-Star break.
• The 30 — every roster priced by the minute: Team GRAVITY on the same scale as players, with a registered bet on how well it tracks the standings.

Who makes this

Written, modeled, and maintained by Francesco Freedman. The publication is deliberately small: one author, one model, a public ledger, and an annual reckoning. Criticism of the methodology is welcome. The articles have already been revised once after external review, in the direction that hurt us, and are better for it. Reach the editorial desk at francesco [at] freedman.co.

Colophon

Articles are written in LaTeX and rendered to vector pages, so they stay crisp at any zoom. The site is hand-built static HTML on Cloudflare: no framework, no build step. Readership is counted by an anonymous, humans-only beacon: no cookies, no IP addresses, no fingerprinting, and Do Not Track is respected. Cleaning the Glass data is used under subscription; only derived values are published. Subscribe by RSS. The email edition is coming.