The Gravity Report
THE 644
1 JOKIĆ 97.8 · 2 GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER 92.9 · 3 WEMBANYAMA 85.7 · 4 ANTETOKOUNMPO 83.9 · 5 DONČIĆ 83.0 · 6 LEONARD 77.3 · 7 CUNNINGHAM 70.3 · 8 TOWNS 69.3 · 9 MITCHELL 68.1 · 10 MAXEY 67.3 · 11 BALL 66.8 · 12 HOLMGREN 66.6 · 13 CURRY 66.5 · 14 DUREN 65.9 · 15 BARNES 65.8
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Article · Oct 20, 2026

The 2026–27 Gravity Report Predictions

Twenty calls for the season, each with a probability, every one of them scored.

Every call we make below gets a probability with it, and every probability goes into the Forecast Ledger, where it will get scored after the season. When a sportsbook has a price, we quote it with the book and the date, and we say how far away we are from it.

Read the article 7-minute read · Oct 20, 2026
The 644 · July 2026 edition

Every NBA player, one number

How good, times how often. Next edition at the All-Star break.

  1. 1Nikola JokićDEN97.8
  2. 2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC92.9
  3. 3Victor WembanyamaSAS85.7
  4. 4Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA83.9
  5. 5Luka DončićLAL83.0
  6. 6Kawhi LeonardTOR77.3
  7. 7Cade CunninghamDET70.3
  8. 8Karl-Anthony TownsNYK69.3
  9. 9Donovan MitchellCLE68.1
  10. 10Tyrese MaxeyPHI67.3
See all 644 players
The Forecast Ledger

Every call, on the record before the season

Each forecast gets a probability before tip-off and a grade after the season. No deletions, no edits, no quiet revisions.

32open
0graded
Aprfirst grades, 2027
D1Jalen Duren stays top 15 in The 644#16–20 near miss (graded as a miss)80%grades 2027-07
2Neemias Queta finishes top 50 in The 64475%grades 2027-07
E1The 30 team ranking calls the standingsSpearman ≥ 0.60 vs final 2026-27 wins75%grades 2027-07
P4Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama70%grades 2027-06
K5Kawhi's true shooting falls below .610He shot .629 last season. Void under 1,000 minutes65%grades 2027-04
P25Milwaukee over 25.5BetMGM line, Oct 1962%grades 2027-04
P28San Antonio under 59.5BetMGM line, Oct 1962%grades 2027-04
P29Washington under 34.5.BetMGM line, Oct 1962%grades 2027-04
P30Utah under 37.5BetMGM line, Oct 1961%grades 2027-04
D3Duren posts the best BPM among traditional centerscenters with a three-point rate under 10%, 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference60%grades 2027-04
J2Jokić leads the NBA in Box Plus/Minusplayers with 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference60%grades 2027-04
K4Kawhi's usage stays at 30% or moreVoid under 1,000 minutes60%grades 2027-04
P26Golden State over 36.5BetMGM line, Oct 1960%grades 2027-04
P27Portland over 41.5BetMGM line, Oct 1960%grades 2027-04
P23Surprise team: Toronto wins 47 or more games56%grades 2027-04
J1Nikola Jokić stays #1 in The 644#2 near miss (graded as a miss)55%grades 2027-07
K1Kawhi Leonard stays top 8 in The 64450%grades 2027-07
P20LeBron James plays 60 or more games for Philadelphia50%grades 2027-04
P24Disappointment team: Atlanta wins 40 or fewer games48%grades 2027-04
P19Jokić averages a triple-double again45%grades 2027-04
2bQueta finishes top 25 in The 64440%grades 2027-07
P1Oklahoma City wins the 2026–27 championship34%grades 2027-06
K3Kawhi finishes top 8 in Box Plus/Minusplayers with 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference30%grades 2027-04
P6Breakout of the year: Dylan Harper.BPM 3.0+ in 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference30%grades 2027-04
P5Rookie of the Year: Cameron Boozer28%grades 2027-06
J3Jokić wins the 2026–27 MVP25%grades 2027-06
P3MVP: Nikola Jokić25%grades 2027-06
P18Kyrie Irving is traded before the February 11 deadline.NBA transaction log, Feb 11 deadline20%grades 2027-02
P7Most Improved Player: Brandon Miller14%grades 2027-06
P22Coach of the Year: Darko Rajaković, Toronto13%grades 2027-06
P8Sixth Man of the Year: Ajay Mitchell.12%grades 2027-06
P21The Finals is Oklahoma City against Detroit6%grades 2027-06
See the full ledger and grading rules

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